By Claus Hetting, WiFi NOW CEO & Chairman
The battle for spectrum is never-ending and so – it appears – is the defence of existing Wi-Fi spectrum. Both WiFiForward – a Wi-Fi industry special interest group out of Washington D.C. – and CableLabs have recently released detailed studies in support of existing 6 GHz Wi-Fi spectrum allocations. The two reports are ostensibly rebuttals against a new US Senate bill that has (part of) the 6 GHz band tagged for possible auctioning off to mobile operators, a source knowledgeable on the matter says.
Despite the Wi-Fi industry being hugely successful in ushering in a new era of connectivity based on full-band 6 GHz spectrum some five years ago, the opposition is once again trying to wrangle spectrum away for mobile services. The 6 GHz band now appears to be a target for possible auctioning, a new US Senate bill proposes. The purpose is ostensibly to raise auction funds to offset the cost of President Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill tax cuts, says a source knowledgeable on the matter.
At this time it is unclear where this is headed also because the current House of Representatives’ budget bill – which presumable competes with the Senate’s bill – would mandate an auction of 600 MHz for mobile services (200 MHz less than the Senate’s 800 MHz proposal) although in this case, the House bill guarantees that the existing full 6 GHz Wi-Fi band would not be touched.
Confused? We are, too. The bottom line seems to be that the FCC could soon be under pressure to do something to find a big chunk of spectrum to auction away and that this could include current Wi-Fi spectrum. But it is anybody’s guess what the likelihood of this happening might be.
Losses from reallocation of 6 GHz spectrum: US$2.11 trillion
Thankfully, DC-based Wi-Fi special interest group WiFiForward is keenly aware of the ongoing battle and quickly mobilised a response in the form of a report outlining the massive economic losses that would ensue if the upper part (6.425-7.125 GHz) of the 6 GHz band were repurposed for mobile services (the report can be found here). The numbers are staggering, to say the least.
According to the report’s author – Dr Raul Katz of Telecom Advisory Services – the US economy would forfeit a whopping US$2.11 trillion during the period 2025-2027. “Economic losses rise from US$ 567 billion in 2025, US$ 689 billion in 2026, and US$ 850 billion in 2027,” the report says.
The report concludes that “every economic category suffers when use of the 6 GHz band is restricted: Enterprise speed and latency benefits contract by more than 60 percent, free Wi-Fi consumer savings fall by roughly the same proportion, and rural broadband gains are halved as WISPs must deploy additional access points to maintain coverage.” Telecom Advisory Services has previously authored a number of reports – for among others Wi-Fi Alliance – on the economic surplus value of Wi-Fi.
CableLabs: “Reallocation would decimate Wi-Fi connectivity”
Meanwhile, CableLabs – another staunch proponent of 6 GHz Wi-Fi – has released the initial results of a Wi-Fi network use analysis (in the form of a blog here) stating outright that reallocation of the 6 GHz band would “decimate Wi-Fi connectivity”. CableLabs’ simulation results even go so far as to conclude that current 6 GHz spectrum allocations will soon be exhausted.
“The results of the simulation show that consumers in dense residential environments are likely to experience widespread and significant Wi-Fi performance degradation, indicating near-term spectrum exhaustion based on growing demand,” CableLabs says.
William Webb: Mobile data growth is slowing
And while the US government is looking for new sources of revenue, it is entirely unclear whether US mobile operators would be ready to spend additional billions on new spectrum and whether mobile operators even need this spectrum. According to independent analyst (and former Ofcom regulator) William Webb, mobile data growth is slowing in most markets. Growth is now in the region 15-20% a year and is likely to plateau to zero around 2027, William Webb says in a blog here.
“We may soon be entering a period of plateauing usage unless some new application emerges to drive greater consumption. We should optimise networks for other factors than capacity such as lowest cost, maximum coverage and lowest power consumption,” William Webb says.
At the same time the ecosystem for 6 GHz Wi-Fi has been spectacularly successful over the past 5 years with more than 5,000 certified Wi-Fi devices supporting 6 GHz and more than 1,200 supporting Wi-Fi 7, according to device tracker information provided by Intel here. It is also well documented that Wi-Fi – including devices operating in the 6 GHz band – is closing in on carrying a staggering 90% of total mobile phone data (read more here) in the US.
One can only imagine what the financial consequences might be for mobile operators if even a small part of this traffic had to be funnelled back to mobile networks. In that case operators might need first to spend billions on new spectrum – and then spend additional billions on new 6 GHz network infrastructure.
As it stands, mobile operators are getting all of this traffic carrying capacity for free.
/Claus.
